Sources of Power by Gary A. Klein

Author:Gary A. Klein
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: business; psychology; management; cognitive science; cognition; naturalistic; decision making; brain; behavior
Publisher: The MIT Press
Published: 2017-09-15T04:00:00+00:00

Opportunities and Improvisations

Chapter 8 discussed the importance of spotting leverage points—seeing opportunities and being able to make adjustments to take advantage of them. These leverage points maybe visible to experts but invisible to novices.

One aspect of being able to improvise that was not discussed in chapter 8 is the ability of experts to generate counterfactuals: explanations and predictions that are inconsistent with the data. Perhaps they have this ability because they have learned not to place too heavy a reliance on data. Novices, in contrast, have difficulty imagining a world different from the one they are seeing.

We recently studied weather forecasters, to try to learn how they predict changes in ceiling that allow aircraft to take off and land at airports. (Ceiling refers to the lowest layer of clouds on an overcast day.) One observation was made on a day when the ceiling was too low for aircraft operations. One forecaster, who was not identified as having much expertise, was asked when he thought the ceiling would lift. He said his prediction was for the ceiling to lift above 1,000 feet by 2:00 P.M that afternoon. (It was then about 10:00 A.M) Probing for counterfactual thinking, we asked what sequence of events might occur that would result in the ceiling lifting earlier than that, by noon. He was unable to imagine such a possibility. He had followed a set of rules to generate his prediction and could not conceive of a different world. To us, this signaled the fact that he was not an expert. We received some confirmation when we returned after lunch, at 1:00 P.M, and learned that the ceiling had already lifted above 1,000 feet.

In the RPD model, one pathway in the decision cycle is to seek additional information. This may seem like a routine activity, but it also requires expertise. (A mindless information-gathering strategy is not likely to be useful.) Experienced decision makers appear to be able to spot opportunities where the information that can be helpful can be readily obtained. For example, a weather forecaster trying to predict when a ceiling will lift may notice that the ground temperature is not rising as rapidly as usual during the morning. The critical cue here is the trend in temperature increase, and the interpretation of this trend in relationship to the typical pattern of increase. Moreover, this trend can be easily tracked using one of the available displays. Skilled decision makers may be able to seek information more effectively than novices. This skill in information seeking would result in a more efficient search for data that clarify the status of the situation.

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